Been reading through some early pages of the thread and found this prediction on Hampton tickets which I nailed:
Just some words of wisdom from the ticket market guru:
After Saturday\'s onsale, EVERYONE is gonna hit the secondary market. Right now roughly $250 per show can get you in to each night. After Saturday, with everyone having no more hope at face value tickets, the secondary market will blow up and I expect that tickets will start going for $350-$400 a pop as buyers hit the market in large numbers.
The only inaccurate part of that prediction was underestimating how correct the basic theory was. Turns out tickets sold for $500-$700 each by showtime, not $350-$400.
The Ticket Market Guru is back with a new summer tour prediction! Ticket Market Guru says:[/COLOR]
If you\'re looking for tickets to a show, sit and wait.
The bubble is going to burst. The secondary market is driven in large part by scalpers, but it\'s also being heavily driven by the fact that fans are buying tickets to shows all over the map that they have no intention of attending. They\'re just getting them for "trade bait". Well, a lot of them are in for a rude awakening. Trading on the internet is not easy; fans are very flaky, a lot of tickets aren\'t shipping until 2 weeks before the show, a lot of fans don\'t live anywhere near many other fans so they cannot meet and trade. There are going to be a lot of loose tickets starting 3 weeks before the shows that people are going to start to get nervous about moving in time. And Red Rocks is no exception. A lot of people far from Colorado pulled one day and don\'t want to fly for one show. It\'s still difficult to get, but there are more loose Red Rocks tickets out there than you might think. If you have a pavilion ticket in the first 20 rows for any northeast show, you can trade it 1:1 for Red Rocks tickets with other people in the northeast right now. You just have to find them.
There are a lot of people in each region who just want to get to their local show and can\'t because people everywhere else grabbed all the tickets. How many Connecticut residents don\'t have Hartford tickets right now? How many Hartford tickets are in the hands of people over 500 miles away who have no intention of going? Several thousand tickets. This is a totally self-destructive mechanism of the Phish scene. This is why nobody can get through to their local show and secondary market prices are sky high. Every big act has the scalpers after them, but no other big act has the whole fanbase completely taking tickets away from each other, holding tickets hostage for shows they have no intention of attending. This doesn\'t happen to any other band. People who want to see Dave Matthews in Boston don\'t go buying Dave tickets in every other city and then holding them hostage for trading with people who are holding Boston tickets hostage. Right now everyone thinks they\'re going to find the trade they want, but they\'re not. There is no amount of Alpine or SPAC lawns that will get you into Fox or Rox.
So yes, a lot of people will want the tickets, but there will be a lot of desperate sellers too.
Unlike Hampton, where prices kept rising all the way up to and into the lot itself, this time the market is high right now, early in the game. So wait. By the time second leg starts, we\'ll already have a fall tour announced, likely including a Halloween show. This will drive demand down too. The last 2 weeks before each second leg show will be a good time to get to work and find your tickets.
Ticket Market Guru out!
